Iran’s military support for Russia has diminished significantly, impacting Moscow’s ongoing military operations in Ukraine. This decline follows years of Iranian arms supplies to Russia, particularly since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Recent analyses indicate that Iranian military contributions no longer play a pivotal role in Russia’s war efforts.
According to a report by Bloomberg on January 12, 2023, Iranian missile sales to Russia have reached approximately $2.7 billion since October 2021. Although both Russia and Iran maintain that no military supplies have been delivered, the evidence points to a different reality. Iran’s permanent mission to the United Nations stated in May that the country would refrain from military assistance to any party in the conflict, despite indications of ongoing support for Russia.
During the early phases of the Ukraine conflict, evidence emerged of Russia’s deployment of Iranian-made Shahed drones. Despite some continued drone transfers, experts suggest that the peak of Iranian military support has passed. Hanna Notte, the Eurasia program chief at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, remarked on January 14, 2023, that “I think we’ve long passed the peak of Iranian defense transfers to Russia.”
Analyst Ruslan Suleymanov from the New Eurasian Strategies Center echoed this sentiment, stating that Russia’s dependence on Iranian weaponry has significantly lessened. With the production of the Shahed drones now largely taking place in Russia under the name Geran, approximately 90 percent of the production cycle occurs domestically, reducing reliance on Iranian technology.
As Russia ramps up domestic drone production, Ukraine estimates that the country produces around 5,000 long-range drones monthly, including the Geran strike drone and the Gerbera, a decoy drone. In a testimony to the US Senate Armed Services Committee in April 2023, General Christopher Cavoli, then head of US Central Command, asserted that Iran has continued to support Russia by providing over 400 short-range ballistic missiles and hundreds of thousands of artillery shells.
In May 2023, reports suggested that Iran would dispatch Fath-360 missile launchers to Russia; however, Tehran has denied these claims. The Pentagon previously indicated in September 2022 that Fath-360 missiles had already been delivered. Following this, in October 2022, the US imposed sanctions on two Russian shipping companies involved in the transportation of drone equipment and munitions to Ukraine.
The US State Department emphasized its commitment to curtail Iran’s military activities, particularly its missile transfers to Russia. The European Union followed suit with sanctions on three Iranian airlines and two procurement firms linked to missile and drone transfers. Notably, there have been no confirmed reports of Fath-360 missiles being utilized in Ukraine, raising questions about their delivery or necessity as Russia increased domestic production and sourced arms from North Korea.
A report by the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) in February 2022 indicated that Russia’s Defense Ministry plans to produce around 750 ballistic and 560 cruise missiles in 2025. Subsequent intelligence from Ukraine has suggested even higher production estimates, implying that Russia may not require Iranian missiles for its military operations.
Iran has reportedly supplied Russia with extensive amounts of ammunition and shells since the onset of the war. A Wall Street Journal investigation in 2023 estimated that Iran had sent approximately 300,000 artillery shells and around 1 million rounds of ammunition to Russia. Recent Ukrainian drone strikes in 2025 indicate that Iran’s military supplies to Russia are ongoing, particularly with reports of attacks on the Caspian port of Olya, a key hub for Iranian military shipments.
A study from the Kyiv School of Economics last year highlighted significant volumes of explosives transported from Iran and North Korea, with North Korean supplies constituting 58 percent of Russia’s explosive imports. Notte noted that North Korean ammunition has now surpassed Iranian supplies in scale, with estimates suggesting that 50 percent of all ammunition used by Russia in Ukraine originated from North Korea.
As the dynamics of military support evolve, it is clear that Iran’s role in supplying arms to Russia is not what it once was, raising questions about future military collaborations in the ongoing conflict.
