Concern is rising in the U.S. housing market as a recent analysis reveals that only seven metropolitan areas are currently classified as sellers’ markets. The remaining regions are shifting towards a buyer’s market, leading to predictions of falling house prices across the country. This shift marks the most significant imbalance seen in a decade, with sellers outnumbering buyers by a staggering 37 percent nationwide.
Understanding the dynamics of the housing market is crucial. A buyer’s market occurs when the supply of homes exceeds demand, empowering buyers to negotiate lower prices and secure favorable terms. Conversely, in a seller’s market, demand surpasses supply, allowing sellers to maintain higher prices. Currently, the situation is stark, with most of the U.S. experiencing conditions that favor buyers.
Current Market Landscape
Among the seven metro areas where sellers still hold an advantage, six are located in the Northeast and Midwest, with the exception of one on the West Coast. Notably, Nassau County, NY, stands out as the most robust sellers’ market, with buyers outnumbering sellers by approximately 40 percent. This translates to about 140 active buyers for every 100 homes available for sale.
Other areas maintaining seller-friendly conditions include Montgomery County, PA, Newark, NJ, and New Brunswick, NJ. Additionally, San Francisco, CA, Milwaukee, WI, and Cleveland, OH complete the list of regions where demand still exceeds supply. These markets share common traits: stable job opportunities and limited housing inventory, which helps sustain demand even as broader market trends cool.
Milwaukee realtor Ben Ambroch described the city’s market as more balanced than strictly favorable to sellers. He noted that pricing remains crucial, as sellers are typically unwilling to sell unless they achieve a price that ensures a manageable monthly payment. Looking ahead, Ambroch anticipates the Milwaukee market will remain relatively stable, bolstered by affordable homes and an influx of buyers relocating from other markets.
Shifting Dynamics in the Sun Belt
In stark contrast, many regions within the Sun Belt have experienced a cooling off, resulting in increased inventory, sluggish price growth, and enhanced negotiating power for buyers. States like Florida and Texas are currently characterized by a buyer’s market, with a considerable oversupply of homes due to overdevelopment in response to pandemic-driven demand.
Cities such as Austin, TX, Nashville, TN, and Fort Lauderdale, FL are now grappling with over 100 percent more sellers than buyers, reflecting a troubling trend in these areas. This imbalance has significant implications for homeowners, as prices are expected to decline, potentially leading to situations where recent buyers find themselves underwater—owing more on their mortgages than their homes are worth.
Redfin’s senior economist Asad Khan highlighted the parallels between the current market conditions and those of the 2008 financial crisis, when a similar surplus of inventory led to weakened demand and buyer leverage. However, Khan expressed a cautiously optimistic outlook for 2026, suggesting that improved housing affordability could entice some buyers back into the market, potentially narrowing the gap between buyers and sellers.
Despite this potential for improvement, the overall sentiment remains cautious. Khan emphasized that the housing market is likely to continue favoring buyers in the near term, with sellers expected to reduce prices or offer concessions to attract interest.
As the U.S. navigates this shifting landscape, the implications for homeowners and potential buyers are profound. The shift towards a buyer’s market not only affects housing prices but also influences broader economic conditions, impacting consumer confidence and spending in various sectors.
