The health crisis of Ramzan Kadyrov, the controversial leader of Chechnya, is raising alarms among regional experts and officials who warn that his impending death could unleash significant violence and instability across southern Russia. Kadyrov, 49, is reportedly suffering from severe chronic kidney and pancreatic conditions that have left him in a precarious state, with independent Russian media sources suggesting he has “barely” survived hospitalisation over the Christmas period.
Recent reports indicate that Kadyrov is experiencing intense pain and difficulty in mobility, with a Ukrainian intelligence source describing his condition as “at death’s door.” Footage from public appearances shows him appearing frail and struggling to articulate his words. Despite his attempts to dismiss health concerns, including posting videos of himself exercising, recent remarks suggest he has begun to contemplate his mortality. “I don’t want to live to old age,” he stated. “I want to leave this life loved and respected by everyone.”
The implications of Kadyrov’s potential death extend beyond personal tragedy, as his regime has maintained a tenuous grip over Chechnya through a combination of fear and loyalty to Vladimir Putin. Installed as president by Putin in 2007, Kadyrov has long been one of the Russian leader’s most loyal allies, suppressing dissent and ensuring stability in a region historically known for its conflicts.
Potential for Violence and Instability
Experts suggest that Kadyrov’s death could catalyse a resurgence of violence among groups that he has oppressed during his rule. Abbas Gallyamov, a former aide to Putin, explained that Kadyrov’s regime has marginalized various Chechen social groups, generating a deep-seated animosity that could erupt following his demise. “Nobody can rule out that this hatred will explode after his death,” Gallyamov remarked, indicating that a fractious power struggle could emerge within the Kadyrov clan itself.
As the strongest contender for succession, Kadyrov’s youngest son, Adam, has received several promotions; however, he was recently injured in a car accident, raising questions about his ability to lead. The Chechen constitution stipulates that a leader must be at least 30 years old, which means that a regency might be necessary to govern until a suitable successor is appointed. This interim leadership could lead to further instability if factions within the Kadyrov clan attempt to assert their authority.
The Broader Implications for Putin
The potential for a power vacuum in Chechnya poses significant risks for Putin and the Kremlin. Max Hess, an expert on Eurasia, noted that Kadyrov has acted as a stabilizing force in the North Caucasus region, where various groups harbor resentments towards Moscow. His absence could embolden insurgent movements, which might exploit the chaos for their own ends.
Kadyrov’s forces have historically quelled dissent in neighbouring regions, but if they were to lose their primary enforcer, this could lead to a resurgence of protest movements and rival factions. The unrest could stretch Moscow’s resources further, especially as the majority of its military is currently engaged in Ukraine.
According to Oleksii Goncharenko, a Ukrainian member of parliament, the aftermath of Kadyrov’s death could unfold in several ways. “His inner circle could turn on each other, leading to a real struggle for power,” he stated. “Alternatively, Moscow could respond with brutal suppression of any unrest.” Either scenario would likely divert attention from the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, potentially easing pressure on Ukrainian forces.
The situation remains fluid, with observers noting that Ukraine and its allies could find opportunities to support insurgent groups or pro-independence movements in Chechnya. “Russia doesn’t have troops – they are all in Ukraine. And they struggled to beat the Chechens even when there was no war,” Gallyamov added, indicating that the timing could be advantageous for Ukraine.
As the world watches these developments unfold, the potential for chaos in Chechnya not only threatens regional stability but also poses a direct challenge to Putin’s grip on power, marking a critical juncture in the complex landscape of Russian politics.
