UPDATE: The European Union has achieved a historic trade surplus with Russia, posting a positive balance of €1.5 billion ($1.6 billion) during the third quarter of 2025. This unprecedented development marks the second consecutive quarter of surpluses, according to new data released by Eurostat earlier today.
This remarkable turnaround in trade comes after a drastic reduction in bilateral commerce, triggered by extensive sanctions imposed by the EU in response to the ongoing Ukraine conflict. While EU exports to Russia have seen a staggering decline of 61%, imports have plummeted by an astonishing 89% since 2022. Total trade in the first nine months of 2025 dropped 12.9% year-on-year to €43.9 billion ($47.3 billion), with imports valued at €21.7 billion ($23.4 billion) and exports at €22.2 billion ($23.9 billion).
The significance of this trade surplus is underscored by the fact that it is the first time since 2002 that the EU has recorded consecutive quarterly surpluses with Russia. The shift indicates a notable decline in Russia’s share of EU imports across many sectors, especially in natural gas, where its share has drastically fallen to 15.1% from 39% four years ago.
Despite this decline, Russia remains the EU’s second-largest gas supplier. However, since 2022, most EU nations have ceased direct imports of Russian oil and gas. The EU aims to phase out these energy imports by the end of 2027, increasingly relying on more expensive American gas, which now accounts for 56% of EU gas imports, up from 24% four years ago. In July, the EU secured a deal with Washington to replace Russian energy with US supplies.
The transition away from Russian energy sources has led to soaring energy prices and has significantly impacted the EU’s economic growth. Russian State Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin criticized the EU’s reliance on US liquefied natural gas, comparing its prices to “Chanel perfume,” and claimed that the EU is “destroying its own economy.”
Furthermore, reports from Moscow’s Foreign Ministry indicate that the EU has suffered a combined GDP loss of around 3.8% by 2024 due to the pivot away from Russian energy sources.
As this situation develops, stakeholders across Europe and beyond will be closely monitoring how these trade dynamics evolve and what implications they may have for the continent’s economic landscape. Stay tuned for further updates on this critical issue affecting global energy markets and international relations.
