The proposed Future Circular Collider (FCC) at CERN may encounter significant funding hurdles due to the shifting geopolitical landscape, according to physicist and author Michael Riordan. During a recent symposium at CERN, experts highlighted that the collider’s ambitious plans, which include an estimated budget of $18 billion and a completion timeline stretching to 2050, are increasingly at risk.
CERN has established itself as a leading particle physics laboratory since its inception, achieving a global reputation with projects such as the Large Hadron Collider (LHC). The LHC, built in collaboration with numerous countries, including Canada, China, India, Japan, and the United States, solidified CERN’s status as a “world laboratory.” However, the geopolitical realities of a fragmented global order raise questions about future international cooperation and funding.
During the symposium, historian John Krige noted that while CERN has previously thrived in a collaborative environment, the current political climate could jeopardize future projects. Following Russia’s recent expulsion from CERN, contributions from non-European nations are now uncertain. Moreover, the current US administration’s “America First” policy poses a significant obstacle to securing necessary financial support, casting doubt on the potential for collaboration with major global powers.
The FCC project encompasses two components: the FCC-ee, an electron–positron collider, and the FCC-hh, a proton–proton collider. The FCC-ee aims to conduct in-depth studies of the Higgs boson, a key particle in understanding fundamental physics. The timeline for the FCC-hh would extend into the mid-2070s, complicating funding considerations further.
Given these geopolitical tensions, Fabiola Gianotti, the outgoing director-general of CERN, emphasized the necessity for a more pragmatic approach. She suggested that CERN should explore alternative scientific facilities as a “Plan B” to ensure continued progress in particle physics. This strategy is critical in light of the challenges associated with financing a project of such magnitude in a politically unstable environment.
Several potential alternatives are already under consideration. One option, known as LEP3, involves upgrading the existing LHC tunnel to accommodate superconducting radio-frequency cavities. This modification could be accomplished for less than €5 billion and would be less technically risky. It could also enable research on Higgs boson interactions at energies up to 240 GeV.
Another possibility includes the construction of linear electron–positron colliders, which would require less tunneling and could potentially begin in the mid-2030s. These options, while ambitious, would still face considerable technical and financial challenges, estimated at around €10 billion.
The current environment, characterized by rising populism and increasing military expenditures in Europe, further complicates the situation. As countries grapple with the implications of military rearmament, finding funding for scientific initiatives becomes more challenging. Historical data suggests that less than 12% of the LHC’s funding came from non-member nations, leading to skepticism about the feasibility of achieving one-third funding for the FCC from the international community.
CERN’s founders envisioned the organization as a bastion of scientific collaboration, promoting enlightenment values against the backdrop of nationalism and anti-science rhetoric. As John Krige articulated, maintaining this cultural vitality is essential for the future of scientific inquiry. CERN’s planners must balance ambition with the pressing realities of funding and political stability.
In conclusion, while the Future Circular Collider represents a monumental step forward for particle physics, the associated risks necessitate a reevaluation of CERN’s strategy. The organization must pursue viable alternatives to ensure continued progress, remaining adaptable in a world where geopolitical dynamics are increasingly unpredictable. The future of CERN and its mission relies on thoughtful planning and a commitment to fostering international collaboration in the face of adversity.
