The Conservative Party in the UK is struggling to regain its footing following its disappointing performance in the 2024 General Election, where it secured just 121 MPs with a mere 24 percent of the vote. Despite signs that leader Kemi Badenoch is beginning to settle into her role and effectively challenge Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer, the party’s polling has remained dismal, averaging below 20 percent for several months.
Many within the party believe that a path to recovery exists, citing Labour’s unpopularity and challenges from the Greens, as well as the fragile state of Reform UK. However, a significant divide remains among MPs, activists, and senior figures regarding the most effective strategy to reclaim voter support. Badenoch has adopted a rightward shift in policy, particularly on immigration and climate change, aiming to win back Conservative voters who have defected to Reform UK. Major proposals include withdrawing from the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) and abandoning the target for the UK to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050.
Centrist Conservatives Mobilize
Centrist figures within the party, feeling sidelined, are now mobilizing to challenge this approach. A new faction called Prosper UK has been launched, advocating for a “practical, centre-right approach” reminiscent of the coalition that brought David Cameron to power in 2015. Led by former Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson and former West Midlands mayor Andy Street, the group includes notable Conservatives like Amber Rudd and David Gauke.
In an interview with The i Paper, Davidson outlined the group’s primary goal: “Getting rid of this s**t Labour Government would be the ultimate goal.” Prosper UK is proactively engaging voters and hosting business events across the UK. However, its policy proposals may create tensions with Badenoch’s leadership. The group plans to publish papers on economic policy, housing, and “intergenerational fairness,” aiming to influence the next Conservative manifesto ahead of the general election, which must occur by 2029. Davidson remarked, “We will probably in some cases be a bit of a pain in the arse… policy debate helps strengthen opposition and it helps get a party ready for government.”
Debate on Party Direction Intensifies
Among the 116 Conservative MPs still serving in Parliament, few dissent from Badenoch’s strategy of directly confronting Reform UK while emphasizing the party’s economic credentials. Davidson expressed confidence that MPs would align with the party’s current direction but cautioned against pursuing a “Reform-lite” strategy. She noted that a significant portion of voters have shifted to Reform since the last election, suggesting that appealing to the centre could yield better results than a hard right approach.
A poll commissioned by Prosper UK from More in Common revealed that nearly one-third of the voters lost by the Tories since 2024 have turned to Reform, while a fifth support Labour or the Liberal Democrats. This data may indicate an opportunity for the party to reclaim centrist voters rather than solely pursuing a rightward strategy.
Conversely, some experts are skeptical about the viability of a centrist pivot. James Johnson, a former adviser to Theresa May, argued that the Conservatives cannot return to power without rebuilding their base on the right. He stated, “This idea of pivoting to the centre just doesn’t work… the central factor is that it has lost voters to Reform.”
Further reinforcing this viewpoint, Luke Tryl of More in Common warned that a successful centre-right party must adopt a robust immigration control stance to regain voter trust.
Former communications director for Boris Johnson, Lee Cain, emphasized the dire state of the party. He pointed out that many voters remain unaware of Badenoch and are disillusioned with the Conservative brand due to past governance failures. Cain stated, “If the Conservatives want to become relevant again, they need to show relentless focus on the public’s priorities.”
As the party navigates these internal divisions, those close to Badenoch maintain that it is possible to appeal to both right-wing supporters and swing voters. One shadow cabinet minister highlighted the party’s potential to offer a compelling strategy that integrates prosperity, security, and opportunity.
With the next general election looming, the Conservative Party faces a critical juncture. To regain traction, it must reconcile its internal differences and develop a coherent strategy that resonates with a diverse electorate. The path to recovery remains uncertain, but the conversation around policy and direction is intensifying as factions within the party stake their claims for the future.
