New polling data indicates that Nigel Farage may face significant challenges in his pursuit of a position at No 10, largely due to the potential for tactical voting among left-wing voters. A survey conducted by BMG Research for The i Paper reveals that supporters of the Labour Party, Liberal Democrats, and Green Party are notably more inclined to vote strategically compared to those backing Farage’s Reform UK or the Conservative Party.
The survey highlights a worrying trend for Reform UK: while the party continues to maintain a lead in polling, its support has dipped to the lowest level recorded by BMG in the past year. The party’s current standing could reflect a waning enthusiasm among its base, with some analysts suggesting that “the shine may be coming off” the party’s appeal.
Polling data reveals that the willingness to engage in tactical voting is particularly pronounced among left-leaning voters. Specifically, 64 percent of those who typically support Labour expressed a readiness to vote for another party to prevent Reform from gaining influence. This inclination is echoed by 61 percent of Green voters and 57 percent of Liberal Democrat supporters. In contrast, only 38 percent of Reform voters and 48 percent of Conservative voters indicated a willingness to vote tactically.
The implications of these findings suggest that progressive voters may collaborate to “lend” their votes to one another in key constituencies, effectively blocking Reform UK from achieving a significant foothold in the upcoming elections.
Reform UK’s Polling Decline
Despite being ahead in the polls, Reform UK’s support has diminished. The party now stands at 27 percent, down 5 percentage points from BMG’s last poll in January. Labour remains steady at 20 percent, while the Conservatives have gained 1 percentage point to reach 18 percent. The Greens, benefiting from a recent victory in the Gorton and Denton by-election, have risen to 14 percent, their highest polling yet in this survey. The Liberal Democrats have also seen a slight increase to 12 percent.
Reform’s decreasing vote share is noteworthy, particularly as it marks the lowest level for Farage’s party since March 2025. Concerns are mounting about the party’s ability to convert national support into actual parliamentary seats, especially in light of the growing anti-Reform sentiment among voters.
Potential for Tactical Alliances
Evidence suggests that traditional Labour supporters are increasingly willing to back other parties to prevent Reform’s advancement. The recent by-election results in constituencies like Gorton and Denton, where Reform came second to the Greens, highlight this dynamic. Additionally, in the Caerphilly by-election, Plaid Cymru outperformed Reform, further indicating a shift in voting patterns among left-leaning constituents.
Jack Curry, a pollster at BMG Research, remarked on the clear discrepancy in tactical voting willingness across the political spectrum. “One of the most striking patterns from this poll is how uneven the appetite for tactical voting appears,” he stated. Curry noted that as the possibility of Reform UK entering government becomes more realistic, voters are increasingly motivated by the desire to keep certain parties out of power.
While Reform UK downplays the impact of tactical voting, citing challenges for left-wing voters to identify the best anti-Reform choice, the potential for coordinated voting strategies among Labour, Green, and Liberal Democrat supporters cannot be ignored. These alliances could complicate Reform’s path to securing significant representation in the next general election.
The exclusive poll for The i Paper surveyed a representative sample of 1,503 adults living in Great Britain between March 4 and 5, 2024. As the political landscape shifts, all eyes will be on whether tactical voting will indeed play a decisive role in the upcoming elections.
