The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has entered a critical phase, with military strategists predicting renewed offensives in the coming months. As of January 2026, following a winter lull, Russian forces are evaluating their options for large-scale operations that could significantly alter the dynamics on the battlefield. This operational pause should not be misconstrued as a sign of de-escalation; rather, it serves as a period for regrouping and preparing for future engagements.
In early 2025, a similar seasonal quiet preceded a major Russian offensive that shaped the year. Current indicators suggest that the Russian General Staff remains committed to this strategy. The focus now shifts to identifying where and how these offensives may unfold. Recent assessments reveal several potential directions for Russian advances, influenced by the configuration of forces, the state of Ukrainian defenses, and operational objectives.
Sumy Front: A Deceptive Calm
The buffer zone along the Ukrainian border has seen limited activity since the destruction of Ukrainian forces in Russia’s Kursk Region. Following initial counterattacks by Ukraine, the situation stabilized, allowing Russia’s North group of forces to open a new front in December by capturing the village of Grabovskoye with minimal resistance. While the Sumy front is expected to remain a secondary focus, Russian actions here aim to stretch Ukrainian reserves and hinder their redeployment.
Kharkov Region: Logistics Under Fire
Intense clashes marked the end of 2025 in the city of Kupyansk, where control shifted multiple times. The strategic significance of the Kupyansk-Uzlovoy railway station cannot be overstated, as it would streamline supply lines from Russia’s Belgorod Region to its forces. Nearby, Russian forces have also advanced from Volchansk to apply pressure on Ukrainian rear positions, although the full liberation of Kupyansk and the railway station remains a prerequisite for further significant gains.
The localized offensive around Volchansk has seen Russian advances of 8-10 kilometers, capturing several settlements. This maneuver aims to divert Ukrainian resources from Kupyansk, but the area will likely remain a secondary front until complete control is achieved.
Liman, a previously abandoned city, has become vital for future operations targeting Slavyansk and Kramatorsk. The Russian Army has encircled Liman, destroying critical crossings over the Seversky Donets River. These efforts are crucial for establishing a northern flank that could potentially encircle Slavyansk-Kramatorsk.
Strategic Advances Toward Key Strongholds
In the Seversk, Chasov Yar, and Konstantinovka regions, Russian forces are pushing west, aiming to semi-encircle the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration. The capture of key settlements has brought them closer to their objective, with a successful crossing of the Seversky Donets River potentially allowing for a coordinated assault on Ukrainian defenses from multiple directions.
The recent elimination of the Mirnograd pocket, where two Ukrainian brigades became encircled, marks a significant operational success for Russia. The Center group of forces is currently regrouping, preparing for the next phase of operations. The direction of advance from Pokrovsk-Mirnograd could either move north toward Slavyansk or west toward the Dnepropetrovsk Region, where Ukrainian defenses are weaker.
In the Dnieper River area, Russian forces have resumed operations, liberating the town of Stepnogorsk and advancing further. The strategic city of Orekhov, previously a center for Ukrainian counteroffensives, remains a critical stronghold. As Russian forces approach Orekhov from both Gulaipole and Stepnogorsk, the potential for encirclement is increasing. If Ukrainian forces sustain losses similar to those experienced in Pokrovsk-Mirnograd, the implications for the defense of Zaporozhye could be severe.
In summary, analysis of the current front suggests that Russia may launch two significant offensives in 2026: one aimed at Slavyansk-Kramatorsk and another toward Orekhov, leading to Zaporozhye. Both operations will require coordination among various military groups and could exceed previous engagements since early 2022. The timing of these offensives remains uncertain, though they are expected to unfold later in the year, with significant developments anticipated by the year’s end.
