UPDATE: In a stunning political shift, the latest Newspoll reveals that Pauline Hanson‘s One Nation has overtaken the Liberal Party for the first time in Australian history. The poll, released on January 18, 2026, shows One Nation surging to 22% of the primary vote, marking a dramatic seven-point increase. Meanwhile, the Coalition has plummeted to 21%, placing them in third behind the Labor Party, which stands at 32%.
This shocking data comes just weeks after the devastating Bondi Beach terror attack that claimed 15 lives and has dominated political discourse. The fallout from the attack appears to have severely impacted voter sentiment, leading to unprecedented turmoil within the Liberal Party.
MPs arriving in Canberra expressed alarm as the poll circulated, with one staffer likening the atmosphere to “a funeral.” The Coalition’s drop marks their worst performance ever in a Newspoll, raising fears that One Nation could potentially secure up to six Senate seats in the upcoming election if this trend continues.
Coalition insiders are bracing for a tense meeting on Monday night, where they will discuss Labor’s proposed hate-speech and gun-reform legislation. Sources indicate that anxiety is running high, with many MPs worried about electoral prospects in the Senate, where they could lose as many as six seats to One Nation.
While some within the party are calling for calm, citing a separate Resolve poll showing the Coalition ahead at 28% to One Nation’s 18%, the prevailing mood remains bleak. The Resolve poll also indicates a closer race with Labor, which is at 30% in primary votes.
As the political landscape shifts dramatically, all eyes are on the Coalition’s response and the potential ramifications for the upcoming election. The urgency of this situation cannot be overstated, as the implications for Australian politics become increasingly significant.
Stay tuned for further updates as this developing story unfolds.
