The United States has escalated its efforts to disrupt the oil trade between Venezuela and Cuba as part of a broader strategy to undermine the regime of Nicolás Maduro. Secretary of State Marco Rubio emphasized a financial approach, suggesting that weakening Cuba could accelerate instability in Venezuela. This move builds on previous initiatives aimed at regime change in Caracas, which have faced setbacks, notably during the Trump administration.
Reports from The New York Times detail how the U.S. military’s presence in the Caribbean is framed as “gunboat diplomacy,” aimed at supporting regime change efforts. During President Donald Trump‘s first term, there was a fleeting moment when the Maduro regime appeared vulnerable, primarily due to support from Cuba. According to Juan S. Gonzalez, a former top aide for Western Hemisphere affairs under President Joe Biden, “Their theory of change involves cutting off all support to Cuba. Under this approach, once Venezuela goes, Cuba will follow.”
Recent actions include the seizure of the tanker Skipper, which was transporting crude oil contracted by Cubametales, Cuba’s state-run oil trading firm. Internal data from Venezuela’s state oil company, PDVSA, indicated that the Skipper was en route to the Cuban port of Matanzas when it was intercepted. The tanker reportedly offloaded approximately 50,000 barrels of oil to another vessel before heading east, leaving the majority of its cargo on board, according to shipping data firm Kpler.
The economic relationship between Venezuela and Cuba has been longstanding, with Venezuelan oil being sent to Cuba at subsidized rates for decades. In exchange, Cuba has provided thousands of medical professionals and security personnel to Venezuela. This relationship has intensified as Maduro relies more on Cuban support to protect his regime amid increasing U.S. military activities in the region.
Despite this historical exchange, reports indicate that only a fraction of Venezuelan oil intended for Cuba has reached the island in recent years. Much of it has been diverted to China, generating critical hard currency for the Cuban government. Ramon Carretero, a Panamanian businessman, has emerged as a key player in this oil trade, facilitating shipments on behalf of the Venezuelan government. Recently, the U.S. Treasury Department imposed sanctions on Carretero for his involvement in these operations.
The Skipper tanker has a complex background, having previously operated within Iran’s covert fleet, transporting oil to Syria and China before its current role in the Venezuelan oil trade. The U.S. strategy appears to be an early attempt to disrupt the significant crude flows from Venezuela to Cuba and subsequently to China. Such actions could potentially destabilize the Cuban economy and weaken Maduro’s hold on power.
As the U.S. continues to apply pressure, the response from Beijing remains uncertain. While the seizure of the Skipper has not yet provoked a strong reaction from China, analysts speculate about the potential implications for ongoing diplomatic discussions between the U.S. and China.
